in June, Russia and North Korea signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. To some Western observers, this appears to be an alliance like the U.S.–South Korea bilateral alliance or even the NATO alliance. However, the history of Russia and North Korea relations makes this more likely a marriage of convenience or even a marriage of desperation: Definitely anti-U.S., but potentially far more fragile than one might otherwise expect.

It is therefore hard to predict exactly how this relationship will develop. Russia appears to have pursued it because it was desperate for munitions that could fill the needs for its invasion of Ukraine. And North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is desperate for food and other resources to calm his internal instabilities and to support his military programs. But China views the Russia–North Korea relationship as an affront to the Chinese goal of regional if not global dominance. So once the North Korean artillery and missile stocks are depleted, North Korea will have less to offer Russia, and Russia may decide that it is better to emphasize its relationship with China than its relationship with North Korea.

• Post Tag line: Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at a welcoming ceremony at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, June 19, 2024.